The Chancellor’s Spring Statement, presented to Parliament 3 March 2026, was packed with political content that has no real impact for UK taxpayers, business owners or employees. The substance of her presentation was a summary of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) Economic and fiscal outlook released on the same date.

Our summary that follows highlights the main points of the OBR statement and adds our reflections on the possible effects these plans will have on future UK taxation policy.
It is also worth mentioning that if the present unrest in the Middle East continues, these forecasts may become untenable.  

What the OBR outlook means for you and future taxation

Following the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, the OBR has published its Economic and fiscal outlook: March 2026. While the document is technical, it provides an important signal about the direction of the UK economy and, crucially, the future shape of the tax system.

This briefing summarises the key items and explains what they may mean for individuals, business owners and investors over the next few years.

The wider economic picture

The OBR expects the UK economy to grow slowly in the near term, before improving modestly later in the decade. Economic growth is forecast to be around 1.1 per cent in 2026, rising to an average of around 1.6 per cent a year thereafter. This is weaker than historic norms and reflects long-standing issues such as low productivity, growth and an ageing workforce.

Inflation is expected to continue falling and move closer to the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target by late 2026. This should help ease pressure on household finances, but it also reduces the pace at which tax revenues naturally increase through wage and price growth.

The overall message is that the economy is stable, but not strong. That matters because government tax receipts depend heavily on economic growth.

The state of the public finances

Government borrowing is forecast to fall gradually over the coming years. Public sector borrowing is expected to decline from just over 5 per cent of GDP in 2024–25 to around 1.6 per cent of GDP by 2030–31. This improvement is largely driven by a high tax take and steady economic growth, rather than major reductions in public spending.

Public sector net debt remains high, stabilising at around 95 per cent of GDP. This is historically elevated and leaves the public finances sensitive to shocks such as higher interest rates or weaker growth.

For taxpayers, this matters because high debt limits the government’s room to cut taxes. Even modest economic setbacks could quickly put pressure back on borrowing.

What this means for future taxation

The OBR does not set tax policy, but its forecasts strongly influence government decisions. The outlook points to several important themes for future taxation.

First, the overall tax burden is expected to remain high. Tax receipts as a share of the economy are close to post-war highs and are forecast to stay there. This suggests that meaningful, broad-based tax cuts are unlikely in the near term.

Secondly, much of the recent increase in tax revenue has come from so-called fiscal drag. Income Tax thresholds have been frozen, meaning that as wages rise, more income is taxed at higher rates. Although inflation is easing, this effect will continue as long as thresholds remain unchanged.

For individuals, this means that effective tax rates may continue to rise even if headline rates do not change. More people are likely to be drawn into higher and additional rate bands over time.

Income Tax and National Insurance

The outlook reinforces the likelihood that Income Tax and National Insurance will remain the government’s most reliable sources of revenue. These taxes are broad-based, predictable and relatively difficult to avoid.

While large increases in headline rates appear unlikely, continued freezes to allowances and thresholds remain a realistic option. Over time, this increases the tax burden on earned income without the need for explicit tax rises.

For employees and directors, this underlines the importance of reviewing remuneration structures, including the balance between salary, dividends and pension contributions, to ensure tax efficiency within the rules.

Business taxation

Corporation Tax receipts remain strong following the increase in the main rate in recent years. The OBR forecasts suggest that business taxes will continue to play a significant role in supporting the public finances.

Given the constraints on public spending and the need for stable revenues, there may be limited appetite for significant reductions in business taxes. Instead, future changes are more likely to focus on reliefs, allowances and compliance measures.

Businesses should expect continued scrutiny of reliefs and incentives, alongside a focus on timely reporting and accurate tax compliance.

Capital taxes and wealth

Although the OBR does not focus heavily on capital taxes in this outlook, the broader fiscal context is important. High public debt and long-term spending pressures increase the likelihood of further reform to taxes on capital and wealth.

Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax and property-related taxes are all areas where governments may seek additional revenue without raising Income Tax rates. This may take the form of rate changes, allowance reductions, or restrictions on reliefs rather than entirely new taxes.

For individuals with significant assets, this reinforces the importance of forward planning, particularly around asset disposals, succession and estate planning.

Long-term pressures and ageing

The OBR highlights the growing cost of an ageing population, particularly in relation to health, social care and pensions. These pressures increase over time and extend beyond the current forecast period.

Unless public spending is reduced or restructured, higher revenues will be required in the long term. This suggests that future tax policy will increasingly focus on sustainability rather than short-term incentives.

From a planning perspective, this points towards a tax environment where reliefs and allowances may become more restricted, and where long-term strategies are preferable to reactive decisions.

Uncertainty and risk

The OBR places significant emphasis on uncertainty. Geopolitical risks, energy prices, productivity trends and labour market changes could all materially affect the outlook.

If the economy underperforms, the government may need to respond quickly. Historically, this has often involved tax measures introduced at relatively short notice. This reinforces the value of regular reviews and keeping tax planning flexible.

What clients should take away

The key message from the OBR outlook is not that major tax rises are imminent, but that the scope for tax cuts is limited. The UK is likely to remain a relatively high-tax economy for the foreseeable future.

Incremental changes, rather than dramatic reforms, are the most likely path. Threshold freezes, relief adjustments and targeted measures are expected to remain central tools of tax policy.

For individuals and businesses, this makes proactive planning essential. Understanding how existing rules apply, making use of available reliefs, and reviewing structures regularly can make a meaningful difference over time.

If you would like to discuss how these trends may affect your personal or business circumstances, we would be happy to help you review your position and plan ahead.

HMRC online services allow individuals, businesses and agents to manage tax matters securely over the internet. Using an HMRC online account, you can send information such as self-assessment tax returns or VAT registration applications, view important records like your business or personal tax account and make payments online.

To access these services, you will need to ensure you have set up an account with HMRC. If you do not already have sign-in details, you can easily create them. HMRC provides three types of online services accounts: individual accounts, organisation accounts and accounts for agents.

An individual account lets you set up a Personal Tax Account where you can complete tasks such as checking your Income Tax estimate and tax code, updating personal details and claiming tax refunds. You can also register for self-assessment if you need to report income from sources such as property or investments. The same sign-in details can be used for both services.

Organisation accounts are for businesses and trusts. A business tax account allows sole traders, partnerships and limited companies to register for self-assessment (if self-employed), VAT, PAYE and Corporation Tax, depending on what is required.

A number of HMRC services use a separate sign-in process, including excise, import and export services, childcare accounts and for reporting Capital Gains Tax on UK property.

The term “silver economy” is used to describe the growing economic activity linked to an ageing population. In the UK and across much of the developed world, people are living longer, healthier lives. This demographic shift is reshaping consumer demand, labour markets, and public policy, and it is creating both challenges and opportunities for businesses.

By 2040, nearly one in four people in the UK is expected to be aged 65 or over. Unlike previous generations, many older adults have higher levels of wealth, remain active for longer, and expect products and services that support independence, wellbeing, and quality of life. This has driven growth in sectors such as healthcare, home adaptations, financial planning, leisure, and technology designed for ease of use rather than novelty.

Financial services are also evolving. As people spend more years in retirement, there is greater focus on retirement planning, later-life lending, equity release, and inheritance planning. Businesses that can offer clear, trusted advice in these areas are well placed to benefit.

Importantly, the silver economy is not just about consumption. Many older individuals continue to work, volunteer, or run businesses well beyond traditional retirement age. Flexible working, part-time roles, and consultancy work allow experience and skills to remain within the economy for longer.

For policymakers and businesses alike, the key challenge is to adapt. Those who recognise the diversity, spending power, and contribution of older generations will find that the silver economy is not a burden, but a significant and growing source of economic value.

The Welsh Final Budget for 2026-27 was published on 20 January 2026. The Budget sets out the Welsh government’s revenue and capital spending plans, including detailed portfolio spending plans.

Mark Drakeford MS, Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Welsh Language confirmed that the Final Budget provides £27.5bn for people, public services and businesses across Wales. This is £1.2bn more than in 2025-26 and £400m more than at the Draft Budget. The additional funding includes resources for local government, the NHS and other Welsh Government priorities.

There have been no changes announced to the Welsh rates of Income Tax (WRIT) which will continue to be set at 10p for 2026-27. This means that the rates of Income Tax paid by Welsh taxpayers will continue to be the same as those paid by English and Northern Irish taxpayers in the new tax year.

The Budget also confirms no changes to the current residential and non-residential rates and thresholds for Land Transaction Tax (LTT) for 2026-27. Some changes to the Multiple Dwelling Relief (MDR) regime for LTT will take effect and a new limited refund provision for the higher residential rates of LTT aimed at supporting more affordable homes.

In addition, Landfill Disposals Tax (LDT) rates will continue to mirror UK landfill tax rates in 2026-27.

Scotland’s Finance Secretary, Shona Robison delivered her third Budget statement to the Scottish parliament on 13 January 2026. This is the final Budget before the Holyrood elections due to take place in May.

There were no changes announced to the Scottish Income Tax rates. Following the UK Government’s extension of personal tax threshold freezes, the Higher, Advanced and Top rate thresholds will also remain unchanged until 2028–29. The Starter rate band is set to increase by 40.3% and the Basic rate band by 13.6% in 2026-27. This means that a larger portion of people's income will be taxed at the starter and basic rates helping to protect lower income households.

The Scottish rates and bands for 2026-27 are as follows:

Starter rate – 19%	£12,571 – £16,537
Basic rate – 20%	£16,538 – £29,526
Intermediate rate – 21%	£29,527 – £43,662
Higher rate – 42%	£43,663 – £75,000
Advanced rate – 45%	£75,001 – £125,140
Top rate – 48%	Above £125,140

The standard personal allowance remains frozen at £12,570. 

No changes were announced to the residential and non-residential rates and bands for the land and buildings transaction tax (LBTT). The standard rate of Scottish landfill tax will rise to £130.75 per tonne and the lower rate to £8.65 per tonne from April 2026 maintaining alignment with the corresponding taxes in the rest of the UK. It was also announced that new council tax bands will be introduced from April 2028 for residential properties valued at £1m more. The Budget measures are subject to final approval by the Scottish parliament.

With so many online accounts now in daily use, including banking, shopping, email and HMRC services, password security has never been more important. A weak or reused password can lead to fraud, identity theft, or unauthorised access to personal and business information.

A good first step is to use strong, unique passwords for every account. Avoid using the same password across multiple websites, as criminals often reuse stolen login details from one breach to access other accounts. Strong passwords are usually at least 12 characters long and do not rely on obvious words or personal information. Many people find passphrases easier to remember than random characters.

A password manager is one of the easiest ways to improve security. It securely stores passwords in an encrypted vault, generates complex passwords for you, and can warn you if you are using weak or repeated passwords. This means you only need to remember one strong master password.

Where possible, enable two-factor authentication (2FA). This adds a second step when logging in, such as a code from an authentication app or a prompt on your phone. Even if someone obtains your password, they may still be unable to access your account without the second factor.

Be cautious with password reset emails and links. Your email account is often the gateway to all other accounts, so secure it with a strong password and 2FA. Also watch for phishing emails and fake login pages designed to steal your details. If unsure, type the website address directly into your browser rather than clicking a link.

Finally, avoid sharing passwords by email or text message, especially in a business setting. Where possible, use separate logins for each person and restrict access appropriately.

A person’s credit rating (often referred to as a credit score) is a measure used by lenders to assess how reliably someone manages borrowing and financial commitments. It can affect whether credit is offered at all, the interest rate charged and even the size of deposit required for certain products. Although each lender uses its own scoring system, most look at similar underlying factors.

One of the biggest influences is payment history. Missing payments on credit cards, loans, overdrafts, mobile phone contracts or buy now pay later agreements can have a negative impact. Even one late payment can reduce a score, while repeated late payments suggest ongoing financial pressure.

The level of borrowing also matters. Lenders consider overall debt, how much available credit is being used and whether borrowing is increasing over time. For example, using most of a credit card limit may indicate higher risk, even if payments are made on time.

A person’s credit history length can also affect their rating. Someone with a longer track record of managing credit sensibly often scores better than someone with little or no borrowing history, even if they are financially secure.

Frequent applications for credit can reduce a score in the short term. Multiple searches in a short period may suggest financial difficulty or over reliance on borrowing.

Another key factor is the stability of personal details. Being registered on the electoral roll at the current address can improve a credit profile, as it helps lenders verify identity. Regularly moving home or having inconsistent address records, can make a person appear higher risk.

Errors can also play a part. Incorrect information, financial links to another person (such as a former partner) or outdated details can damage a credit rating unfairly, so it is worth checking a credit report from time to time.

Finally, it is important to remember that credit scoring is not just about debt, it is about behaviour. A steady pattern of borrowing, prompt repayments and tidy records generally leads to a stronger credit rating over time.

If your business is planning a major UK investment, HMRC’s new advance tax certainty service could give you binding clarity on the tax position before you commit.

HMRC has recently published draft guidance on the new advance tax certainty service as part of the government’s Corporate Tax Roadmap at the Autumn Budget 2024, where the Chancellor set out plans for a new HMRC service to give major investment projects clarity on how tax law will apply in advance. As part of the Autumn Budget 2025 measures last November, it was confirmed that the new service is expected to open in July 2026.

Under the new advance tax certainty service, businesses investing at least £1 billion in the UK over the lifetime of a project can apply for a formal, binding position from HMRC on how various taxes will be applied to their specific circumstances. This applies to taxes such as Corporation Tax, VAT, Stamp Taxes, PAYE and the Construction Industry Scheme.

Unlike existing clearance routes, the advance tax certainty service is designed specifically for large and complex projects where uncertainty over tax outcomes could otherwise discourage investment. HMRC clearances issued through this service will bind the tax authority for up to five years subject to full initial disclosure of all material facts. The clearance may then be renewed for a further five years unless a material change in the law, or a court decision that clarifies its application, means that the prior clearance is no longer correct.

This service is intended to provide those investing significant amounts in the UK, confidence that the tax treatment of a project will not later be challenged.

Pre-tax year end planning is one of the most practical and controllable ways for UK businesses and higher rate taxpayers to reduce unnecessary tax exposure. Unlike long term restructuring, it focuses on decisions that can still be influenced before 5 April or, for companies, before the accounting year end. When done properly, it is not about aggressive schemes, it is about making sure allowances, reliefs and timing opportunities are not wasted.

Why timing matters

The UK tax system is sensitive to timing. Income, expenses, capital purchases and pension contributions can fall into one tax year or the next depending on when action is taken. Once the year end passes, many opportunities disappear completely.

For higher rate taxpayers, this can be particularly costly. Income drifting just over a threshold can trigger higher marginal rates, loss of allowances or reduced reliefs. Pre-year end planning allows income levels to be reviewed and steps taken to mitigate sharp jumps in tax, rather than reacting after the event.

Key benefits for businesses

For owner managed businesses, year-end planning often centres on profit extraction and investment decisions. Reviewing results before the year end allows directors to consider whether profits should be retained, extracted as salary or dividends or redirected into qualifying expenditure.

Capital allowances are a common example. If a business plans to invest in plant or equipment, bringing expenditure forward into the current year can accelerate tax relief and improve cash flow. Pension contributions made by the company can also be an efficient way to extract value, reducing corporation tax while building long term personal wealth.

Stock levels, bad debts and provisions also deserve attention. A timely review can ensure profits are not overstated simply because adjustments were overlooked.

Value for higher rate and additional rate taxpayers

Individuals paying tax at higher or additional rates face some of the steepest marginal tax charges in the system. Pre-tax year end planning can help smooth income and preserve reliefs.

Pension contributions are often central. Personal contributions can attract higher rate relief, while also reducing adjusted net income, which can help protect allowances that taper away at higher income levels. Charitable giving under Gift Aid can have a similar effect.

For those with investment income, reviewing disposals before the year end can allow better use of annual exemptions or losses, rather than triggering avoidable capital gains tax.

For many individuals and business owners, paying tax is one of the largest regular financial commitments they face. Yet tax bills often arrive as a shock, not because the amounts are unexpected, but because the funds have not been set aside in advance. Developing a disciplined approach to saving for tax can remove stress, protect cash flow and support better financial decision making.

The starting point is understanding when tax is due and how much is likely to be payable. For employees taxed through PAYE, liabilities are largely settled automatically. For the self-employed, company directors, landlords and investors, tax is often paid later, sometimes many months after the income is earned. This delay can create a false sense of affordability, leading to funds being spent rather than reserved.

A practical approach is to treat tax as a non-negotiable cost, similar to rent or wages. As income is received, a proportion should be transferred immediately into a separate savings account earmarked for tax. This creates a clear boundary between available funds and money that belongs to HMRC. For those with variable income, setting aside a conservative percentage can help ensure there is enough saved even if profits increase unexpectedly.

Using a dedicated tax savings account can be particularly effective. Keeping tax funds separate reduces the temptation to dip into them for day to day spending. Some people choose instant access accounts for flexibility, while others prefer notice or fixed term accounts if they are confident about timing and amounts. The aim is not high returns, but certainty and accessibility when payment deadlines arrive.

Regular reviews are also important. Changes in income, tax rates, or personal circumstances can affect how much needs to be saved. Reviewing figures quarterly or alongside management accounts allows adjustments to be made before problems arise. This is especially relevant where payments on account apply, as these can significantly increase cash outflows in certain months.

Saving for tax is not just about avoiding penalties or interest. It supports better planning and peace of mind. When tax funds are already in place, decisions about investment, expansion, or personal spending can be made with greater confidence. It also reduces reliance on short term borrowing or time to pay arrangements.

In simple terms, saving for tax turns a reactive problem into a controlled process. By planning ahead and treating tax as a priority, individuals and businesses can smooth cash flow, reduce anxiety and stay firmly in control of their financial position.

If you are considering an asset purchase and are unsure which funding route is most appropriate, we can help you review the options and assess the impact on your business. A short discussion at the planning stage can often lead to a more efficient and sustainable outcome.